Executive Summary

STLD delivered a clean beat: Q3 2025 diluted EPS of $2.74 vs S&P Global consensus $2.63* and revenue of $4.83B vs $4.76B*, driven by record steel shipments (3.61M tons) and metal spread expansion; Adjusted EBITDA rose 24% sequentially to $664M .
Spread tailwinds: average ferrous scrap cost fell $27/ton while the average steel selling price fell only $15/ton, expanding steel spreads; long products remained strong and Sinton posted record shipments .
Offsets and near-term watch items: lingering coated flat-rolled inventory overhang tempered pricing; planned Q4 outages at Butler/Columbus/Sinton could reduce production by up to 85k tons .
Strategic ramp progressing: aluminum FRP achieved early qualifications for can sheet and automotive hot band; management expects monthly EBITDA breakeven or better in Q4 2025 and sees 2026 capex of $500–$600M .
Policy backdrop turning supportive: favorable ITC rulings on coated flat-rolled and Section 232 tariff framework are viewed as demand/pricing tailwinds for U.S.-made, low-carbon steel and aluminum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record steel shipments (3.61M tons) with sequentially higher operating income; Adjusted EBITDA up 24% QoQ to $664M as spreads improved . Quote: “We achieved record steel shipments… revenues were $4.8 billion… adjusted EBITDA was $664 million” — Mark D. Millett, CEO .
- Sinton execution and mix: record Sinton shipments; coating lines and product quality maturing; steel operations OI up 30% QoQ to $498M as scrap fell faster than realized pricing .
- Aluminum progress and decarbonization: produced qualified industrial, can sheet, and auto hot band; first biocarbon produced and successfully consumed at Columbus (lower-carbon supply chain) .
What Went Wrong
- Coated flat-rolled overhang pressured pricing; average external steel price fell $15/ton QoQ to $1,119/ton despite shipment strength .
- Aluminum startup losses increased to $(56.5)M OI in Q3 (commissioning/testing costs), albeit with stronger qualifications and breakeven expected in Q4 2025 .
- Q4 production to be affected by planned outages across all three flat-roll mills (up to 85k tons impact), and customers showed order hesitancy amid evolving trade actions .

Financial Results

Headline vs estimates (Q3 2025)

Metric	S&P Global Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($B)	$4.7647*	$4.8282	+$0.0636 (+1.3%)*
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.6307*	$2.74	+$0.11 (+4.2%)*
EBITDA ($M)	$675.0*	$664.0 (Adj. EBITDA)	-$11.0 (-1.7%)*

Note: S&P Global’s “actual” EBITDA (646.2M*) reflects a different EBITDA definition; company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $663.8M . Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Income statement and margins (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($B)	$4.342	$4.369	$4.565	$4.828
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.05	$1.44	$2.01	$2.74
Gross Profit ($M)	$605.2	$486.5	$618.5	$757.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$557.1	$448.3	$533.4	$663.8
Gross Margin (%)	13.9	11.1	13.6	15.7
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)	12.8	10.3	11.7	13.7

Segment breakdown

Segment	Q3 2024 Revenue ($M)	Q2 2025 Revenue ($M)	Q3 2025 Revenue ($M)	Q3 2024 OI ($M)	Q2 2025 OI ($M)	Q3 2025 OI ($M)
Steel	$2,917.0	$3,275.6	$3,538.0	$1,110.1 YTD	$382.2	$497.9
Steel Fabrication	$447.3	$340.6	$377.7	$316.9 YTD	$93.1	$107.0
Metals Recycling	$498.6	$522.7	$521.0	$78.5 YTD	$21.3	$31.5
Aluminum	$67.0	$65.6	$71.1	$(125.9) YTD	$(40.6)	$(56.5)
Other	$411.7	$360.6	$320.4	—	—	—

Select KPIs (Steel platform)

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Avg external steel price ($/ton)	$998	$1,134	$1,119
Avg ferrous scrap cost ($/ton melted)	$386	$408	$381
Total shipments (tons)	3,481,539	3,349,798	3,613,330
Steel mill production (tons)	3,021,593	2,949,936	3,067,792

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current/Reported	Change
EPS (diluted)	Q3 2025	$2.60–$2.64 (guidance issued 9/15/25)	$2.74 (actual)	Beat vs guidance
Flat-rolled production	Q4 2025	n/a	Planned outages could reduce production by up to 85k tons	New caution
Aluminum FRP ramp	Q4 2025	EBITDA breakeven to slightly positive in 2H25 (Q2 commentary)	Monthly EBITDA breakeven or better in Q4 2025 reiterated	Maintained
Capital investments	FY 2026	n/a	$500–$600M early estimate	New disclosure
Cash tax rate	FY 2025 / FY 2026	n/a	8–9% (2025); 15–16% cash, ~23% effective (2026)	New disclosure
Dividend	Q3 2025	$0.50/share run-rate	Declared $0.50/share in Q3	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025 and Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Trade/tariffs & imports	Q1: Trade uncertainty; coat overhang; prelim AD/CVD favorable . Q2: Final rulings expected by end-Sept; Section 232 supportive .	ITC final determinations on coated FR steel viewed as tailwind; expect reduced unfair imports; Section 232 support continues .	Improving policy backdrop
Aluminum FRP ramp	Q1: First coils expected June; exit 2025 at ~50% utilization . Q2: First coils shipped 6/16; exit 2025 at 40–50%, 2026 exit 75% .	Early qualifications for can sheet and auto hot band; monthly EBITDA breakeven or better in Q4 2025 .	Accelerating execution
Sinton performance	Q1: EBITDA positive; 86% utilization at times >90% . Q2: Oxygen constraint cut 55k tons; EBITDA positive; quality/yields improving .	Record shipments; higher earnings; continued product development and coating mix gains .	Improving operations/mix
Fabrication demand/backlog	Q1: Backlog into Q4-25; solid pricing . Q2: Backlog extends into 2026; inflection point .	Backlog extends through Q1-26; order activity steady; pricing stable .	Stable-to-improving
Decarbonization/biocarbon	Q1: Biocarbon commissioning; up to 35% Scope 1 reduction potential . Q2: Commissioning with shipments expected .	First biocarbon produced and used at Columbus; plan to ramp production .	Milestone achieved
Coated flat-rolled overhang	Q1: Imports and overhang noted . Q2: Overhang compressed coated pricing; expected to ease with rulings .	Overhang persisted but eroding; prices thought to have bottomed .	Easing into year-end

Management Commentary

“We achieved record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons. Revenues were $4.8 billion… adjusted EBITDA was $664 million and we had healthy cash flow from operations of $723 million.” — Mark D. Millett, CEO .
“Our steel operations generated operating income of $498 million in the third quarter, thirty percent higher sequentially based on record shipments and metal spread expansion… Average scrap costs declined $27 per ton, while average realized pricing only declined $15 per ton.” — Theresa E. Wagler, CFO .
“We have produced finished aluminum flat rolled products for the industrial and beverage can sectors and hot band for the automotive sector, which have been qualified by several customers much sooner than anticipated.” — Mark D. Millett, CEO .
“The [Biocarbon] material was successfully used as a carbon replacement at our Columbus Flat Rolled Steel Division, providing a significantly lower-carbon supply chain for our steel customers.” — Mark D. Millett, CEO .
“We view the U.S. International Trade Commission’s final determinations on coated flat rolled steel as a significant positive development… a significant tailwind for our operations and market positioning.” — Mark D. Millett, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Aluminum commercialization and contracting: Management confirmed longer-term contract negotiations for can sheet and automotive are underway; automotive optimization expected earlier within 2027 trajectory given hot band qualification .
Capital allocation outlook: Preliminary 2026 capex $500–$600M; continued buybacks (shares seen undervalued vs opportunities); pipeline of high-return, smaller organic projects; downstream M&A favored over upstream raw materials .
Taxes: Large Q3 deferred tax benefit from accelerated depreciation and R&D; model cash taxes ~8–9% for 2025 and ~15–16% for 2026 (effective rate ~23%) .
Long products strength (including rail): Structural/rail demand robust; contracts being finalized with expectations for growth; consistent rail mix maintained .
Scrap dynamics: $27/ton scrap cost decline seen as normal market “noise”; management confident scrap availability and spreads remain constructive, despite industry capacity growth .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $2.74 vs $2.63*, Revenue $4.83B vs $4.76B*; both beats. EBITDA was slightly below S&P’s EBITDA consensus using their definition, but company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $663.8M .
Estimate participation: 11 EPS and 8 revenue estimates for Q3 2025, indicating well-covered consensus*.
Where estimates may adjust: Positive revenue/EPS surprises and management’s tone on policy tailwinds, Sinton momentum, and aluminum qualification could drive modest upward revisions to 2026 run-rate profitability; however, Q4 planned outages and coated overhang normalization may temper near-term volume/margin modeling .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core steel profitability inflected: spreads expanded as scrap fell more than realized prices; record shipments plus Sinton mix improvement underpin stronger through-cycle earnings .
Aluminum optionality is real: early product qualifications (can sheet, auto hot band) and Q4 monthly EBITDA breakeven point to a steeper ramp than feared into 2026 .
Policy catalysts skew positive: ITC rulings on coated steel and Section 232 tariff architecture should support domestic pricing/volumes, particularly for STLD’s large coated footprint .
Near-term watch: Q4 outages (up to 85k tons) and de-stocking in coated may cap sequential momentum; look for early 2026 normalization and potential price traction .
Cash returns and capacity: liquidity $2.2B; Q3 buybacks of $210M; 2026 capex guided to $500–$600M supports balanced growth and returns .
Decarbonization adds differentiation: biocarbon milestone and GSCC certification deepen OEM appeal and could support pricing premiums in flat-rolled .
Setup: Beat on EPS/revenue with improving mix and supportive policy narrative — constructive medium-term, but be mindful of Q4 maintenance and coated normalization as potential near-term trading overhangs .

STEEL DYNAMICS INC (STLD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary